whitewash sound to still the mind awake, such as the British "Financial Times" (August 15) reminded people not to blindly optimistic about the U.S. economy is still struggling. This paper presents some of the points quite worth considering: (i) economic deterioration is only slowing down, can hardly be that the worst is over. (B) the financial industry are still many potential problems, so there will be no serious incidents that unspeakable. (C) of the Federal Reserve announced that he will continue to keep interest rates at near zero over a long period, it is difficult to say yes prospects. (D) the number of mortgage repayments to a new high, and over 400,000 people exit the labor force, reflecting the housing and job market did not change for the better, so the economy is unlikely turnaround.
more critical is that the asset bubble in a variety of benefits, such as: one driven by the wealth effect of the economy. Help improve the bank's bad debt, increase tax revenue. Third, to restore market confidence. This will help to mitigate the immediate crisis, political and economic contradictions and the pressure faced by the Government authorities on the bubble natural mining-tolerance attitude, try to delay the repressed measures. Can be expected, bred in the foam will be greater than before, and the stronger the contrast of the real economy, the consequences of such self-evident.
stagnation bubble - the formation of the reason
present a series of fundamental factors that impede global economic recovery, including deleveraging, protectionism and financial instability, in addition to the government's expansionary macro-control policies, the effect of revitalizing the economy is also far from satisfactory. On the other hand, the economic bubble, the situation is rapidly
Finally, also to as a key policy failure. Federal Bureau of hand injection to the market, assets surge more than doubled to one trillion U.S. dollars. Injection of funds have not been into the real economy to support growth, the largest bank in the credit balance in the lower rather than increase in excess reserves on the Fed, has surged to more than seven hundred billion U.S. dollars. Similarly, the fiscal spending to increase people's income, but the consumer, retail, but still weak, people take the debt, the number of holdings of government bonds also soared. Therefore, the super expansion of fiscal and monetary policy, to a large extent in the idling: money put down to turn back, and the risk assumed by the Finance and Federal Reserve Board has continuously increased. Problem is more than this: difficult long-term policy support the Lumphini professor refers to early next year, efforts to gradually make the governments will face a dilemma: continue to invest will increase the deficit, will endanger the bond market and pushed up interest rates, if the exit the economy will again decline.
stagnation bubble - how to solve
the global economic downturn, there are a few particularly noteworthy. First, as Professor Lumphini said, the crisis may end at the end of this year, is still the most poorly in the past sixty years: longer and the depth greater, so the impact of broader and deeper. Second, Americans have begun to increase savings, accelerate the debt and reduce consumer spending, household deleveraging process has been started. This is not only inhibit the economic recovery in the United States, over a longer period will cause the outside world (including China) need to continue to struggle World Pipe network informed. Again, the surface of the U.S. financial system stability, in fact, the toxin is not clear. Big banks have government backing to temporarily not be a problem, but local banks are still coming fall, this year has been closed for more than 70, throughout the year is expected to disappear over one hundred.
stagnation bubble - typical event
of Review of the U.S. economy in recent years the course of more thought-provoking. The economy has gone through many different forms, can be called "hot bubble" before the crisis: that bubble to promote the real economy to the hot state. Was based on asset prices instead of savings to increase consumption, the economy started to slow down in early 2008, took the opportunity to climb in the devaluation of the dollar, commodity prices, the economy toward stagflation may. To the second half of the accelerating economic decline, the dollar is strong rebound in the commodity price slump, giving rise to a deflation recession.
Looking to the future and pay attention to the risk of foam renewed: When the old foam unhandled, the new bubble. Stock and debt markets have picked up many a variety of commodity prices this year to more huge increases, if the cause inflation to accelerate to rise a greater impact. In addition, banks began to re-launch the high-risk loans and investment products. , There will be funds extreme flooding the economy to absorb less than the bubble, brought about by this instability will jeopardize the recovery. In short, the material of the real economy will remain weak, the various types of asset bubbles, better economies of Europe and the United States will be plunged into an unprecedented stagnation bubble "period of economic stagnation and rising asset bubbles. Clearly, the risk will therefore rise.
deterioration in the formation of the real economy remained sluggish asset bubbles rising divergence phenomenon, to be called "stagnation bubble, the effects of concern. The fundamental reason for the bubble to accelerate, the central banks of large water and low-interest or even zero coupon super-loose monetary policy; the resulting false prosperity to attract hot money put into a brief rebound in the economy has been exaggerated for real recovery, the more foam blow to the greater, increasingly out of touch with the real economy.
this year such as the above, the recovery in the financial markets in a sustained economic downturn, the property also may bottomed out, the state of stagnation bubble being formed. How to develop, and whether it will turn to another state, remains to be seen. Obviously, the one day unable to set the exit mechanism for the super expansion, or to take suppression action, bubble trend expected to continue until new turn of events burst. The United Kingdom recently announced a further expansion of the amount of bonds the acquisition of 50 billion pounds, the display may also further water, in the case of the stagnation bubble "will deepen.
Hong Kong-quarter economic performance better than expected rebound of GDP the previous quarter, the end of the decline in the trend, and fortunately so, otherwise it will fall on the back of the "trend": the sub-quarter of the world's major economies have significantly improvement in the mainland of China to see V-shaped rebound, France, Germany recorded a small rise, decline compared with the previous quarter narrowed substantially. So one time around the officials and businessmen, researchers or students have to sing praises World Steel Pipe News , means that the worst is over, the nightmare of the financial crisis and economic recession ended, but is that really the case?
Stagnation bubble - the basic concepts of
so-called stagnation bubble economic stagnation in accordance with the literal meaning of the bubble and capital goods, interpreted as the austerity policies of the government's expansionary, not achieved the desired effect of revitalizing the economy, and the other aspects of the economic bubble, but the rapid deterioration in the real economy remained sluggish asset bubbles rising divergence phenomenon, so called "stagnation bubble.