More investors to select the target price set at $ 150 a barrel. The CommerzbankAG of commodity futures is responsible for the people EugenWeinberg believe that if the embargo on short-term oil prices will soar to $ 150. PIMCO Iranian conflict, international oil prices may be washed in the six months to more than $ 150.
You may ask, since the relationship between supply and demand has been resolved, that oil prices will be how to become problem?
However, the embargo itself, within the European Union had, but appear split. Such as Britain, Germany, France and Sweden agreed to sanctions against Iran oil sector, but the high degree of dependence on Iranian oil in Italy, Greece and Spain has shown caution. In these countries, the Greek opposition is the loudest. The most important reason is that, taking into account the rising costs brought about by the oil embargo, may make Greece the already fragile economic unbearable blow.
Take a look at the oil production capacity of this country to cause shock and awe. At present, Iran is the world's third largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia and Russia to sell 220 million barrels of oil. Last year, the European Union daily need to import 45 million barrels of Iranian crude oil, accounting for 20% of the total exports of the latterWorld Steel Pipe . In the EU's oil imports from Iran, Italy and Spain and other southern European countries together accounted for more than 70%. This means that Europe needs to find another source of this daily 45 million barrels of oil, but it is not difficult. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has so far there are 150 million barrels of spare capacity, can cope with sanctions against Iran to bring the gap in Europe, and Libya is just resumption of oil production, can also play a role. A Western diplomat said that the European countries, the problems faced in the next few weeks just how to persuade Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states to increase production.
Greece and other importing countries oppose the embargo
Everbright Futures senior analyst Wang Na, political issues on the impact of oil prices, but the political future of many factors, it is more difficult to determine the future level of conflict. September to November, oil prices at $ 90 with some support to enter the trend of political influence in November uplink. Expected event of the embargo, oil prices are likely to rise in the short term to a maximum of $ 110.
It is understood that, in Europe on a political dispute with Iran in November this year. International Atomic Energy Agency, November 8 survey report shows that Iran is studying the production of nuclear weapons, so the United States and the European Union began to explore the possibility of restrictions on Iran. It is worth mentioning, Reuters reported in the United States and the EU brewing the first round of economic sanctions against Iran at the same time, Greece, Italy and other countries are still with Iran, large trade, the subject of the transaction is the country's oil.
The traders of the Mediterranean trade, said, "the oil trade between Greece and Iran have no any secret at all. Because this environment, other countries will not be sold to Greek oil and Greek only rely on Iran to survive. According to EU figures, Greece, all the oil to be imported. 2011, Greece and Iran's oil trade accounts for the proportion of total imports in Greece will obviously be much higher than 7 percent in 2010.
This is a sufficient change the message of the 2012 global situation. According to foreign reports, meeting in Brussels, EU foreign ministers plan to Iran joining the embargo blacklist, forcing the latter to give up its nuclear program may exist world pie network information . According to oil industry executives said, the EU is likely to support in the meeting held in January next year embargo.
The coexistence of the sanctions and trade, a major international oil dealers, traders said is not difficult to understand, "breach of fear hindered oil trading. The financial sector of the dealers refused to deal with the Greek. This is not because they do not pay, but in order to prevent potential risk of the transaction.
When one day wake up in the morning, you suddenly find street parking around the abandoned car, people are flocking to the subway or electric buses. Do not be surprised, because when oil is $ 150 a barrel, the private car era has passed. This is not science fiction. Yesterday (December 2), with the European Union plans to the Iranian oil embargo, the market has started to target price of oil directly raised to $ 150.
The answer lies in the time. After the 2001 oil embargo of Iraq, from July 2001 to mid-September, OPEC start of oil production to fully compensate for the gap in this very short time, because of changes in short-term supply and demand of crude oil prices have skyrocketed 20 percent. Moreover, Saudi Arabia currently no plans to increase production, replaced by a production target reach 12 million barrels a day, stop the expansion plan of 100 billion U.S. dollars. According to the United States report, Libya's oil production to be restored to pre-war level of full load need to wait until the end of 2012. This indicates that the price of oil will rise sharply in the short time of one or two months after the embargo, even without considering the negative impact of oil demand growth in emerging countries.
Iran's oil, if it is blocked, the oil will be up?
However, the EU appears to have been determined to sanctions against the Iranian oil, which makes Greece immediately into a quandary. Thursday, the EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels, a diplomat before participating in the negotiations, implicitly said, the experts discussed a variety of options, but it is difficult to foresee the results of the consultations. However, after the EU foreign ministers or unified views. , According to diplomats, Italy, Spain and Greece and other oil-importing countries in the EU to give them time to look for other oil supply side has to give up opposition to the embargo, agreed that the existing sanctions conditions further extended to the whole of Europe.
Speaking of Greece and Iran origins, in addition to economic and trade, politics has become the Iran and Greece untied knot. Earlier this year, Iran has to resort to Greek. Mahdi Mu Heta Shami, Iran's ambassador to Greece, the Greek government in April to urge the Greek government in the Iranian nuclear crisis in Iran in the diplomatic channels open up a path of negotiation. Greece subsequently made efforts accordingly. Greece to the United States expressed the hope that the Iranian nuclear crisis be resolved within the Foreign Affairs and United Nations political.
To make matters worse, Iran may also cut off the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for 20 percent of global crude oil transportation, resulting in a supply gap increased to 16 million barrels. This impact on the world, rather than a single region's oil output, and this figure is far higher than the world can use the remaining capacity.
Global bond investment leading PIMCO pointed out that, due to significant production disruptions and strong demand for non-OECD, available on the market "buffer" will be less than earlier this year, which will lead to sharp changes in crude oil inventories. PIMCO is estimated in the report, the current excess capacity of not more than 150 million barrels, and other OPEC countries can compensate for the reduction of Iran's oil production is still a doubt. PIMCO to remind investors: Oil prices may be soaring, investors should have a correct assessment of its portfolio in the sudden outbreak of severe inflation. Interestingly, Goldman Sachs could not see more than 2012 crude oil price movements. According to Goldman Sachs estimates that by the end of 2012, the Brent crude oil prices climbed to $ 127.5 per barrel.
The SWS Research macroeconomic researcher Chen Guo said that the Iranian situation is grim not as Libya, Iran's oil output is twice the size of Libya. Currently on the market is still relatively cautious in not 100% confirmation of European sanctions against Iran, the price of oil is not the oil embargo, in some areas, such as oil prices continue to rise in Europe. According to his estimates, if not a war just the oil sanctions, North Sea Brent crude oil may be at the meeting rose to $ 120 to $ 130 level. He also added that the European finances in dire straits, the large-scale war is unlikely.
Oil prices will rise?