2009 steel trading should be noted that ten questions_Steel Pipe knowledge_News

From the domestic steel market run, the price has entered the inertia of the uplink channel increases, the current market environment and operating conditions, the short period of time the price still has the possibility to continue rising. At the same time, we also found upstream of the original fuel market transaction price, may be the price of steel products pull up, rebounded. So put pressure on the steel, to stimulate the production level, late to affect the relationship between supply and demand. Globally, the steel market is still relatively slow state diversion of steel exports will continue to be blocked, is not conducive to the stability of the domestic market price. From the market, the technical operations of the surface, near the mid-time, due to the pricing of steel, the price of profit-taking and other factors, will result in technical market transaction price fell finishing. For the full year, the following ten aspects to note:

one: the domestic steel production in 2009 will be forced to enter the contraction, however, investment growth will making capacity to further expand the iron and steel enterprises in 2009 will be a very painful and depressing year, if the cost of raw materials to a substantial decline, can also relieve some pressure on steel prices, is nothing more than the operating rate declined. But the fact is: large capacity ready to start production, will inevitably boost demand for raw materials more than the actual demand, then pull the high raw material prices, and makes the prices of raw materials and steel production costs are still at a high level, threatening the effectiveness of the steel mills.

Two: According to the model projections and the actual situation of the domestic economy, without considering the massive government investment pull factors, expected 2009 domestic crude steel consumption is about 4.2835 million tons, 5.4% reduction compared with 2008, crude steel production may be reduced to 4.5419 million tons, representing a 9.2% reduction compared with 2008, net exports of crude steel at 25.84 million tons. With the adjustment of the international economy, the exports in the middle of the year there will be certain rise in the second half was slightly better in the first half. The overall steel consumption, and exports showed a downward trend, upstream adversely steel prices.

: 2009 steel market price will be far below the 2008 level to a normal year the price level regression, we expect the composite steel price index will fluctuate between 100-140, 182 points compared with the average price index of 2008 fell about 33%.

: 2009 full-year steel price trend will show a low after the high trend, mainly due to: the international financial crisis continues to deepen, China's economy decline there is likely to continue into the second quarter of this year is reflected in the demand side is the first half of the exports continued to decline and reach the lowest point of the year, and China to expand domestic demand action in the first half of the year can not be fully expanded, combined with steel overcapacity pressure, making the steel market in may enter in the first half of the bottom. After the second half of the international economy is expected to moderate to pick up, China's 4 trillion investment-led and other policies to stimulate consumption continue to play a role in the steel market is expected to strength.

: Steel market fluctuation frequency to increase in 2009. Expected steel market this year, there will be an iterative process of fluctuations in demand for steel in the year performance for the contraction of the steel overcapacity more profound contradictions, steel mills do not want to give up any chance to release their production in order to create efficiency, which , the annual steel market price will be subject to production release of repression.

The other hand, the large-scale investment plans promulgated by the state is bound to a different point in time boost steel consumption, thereby pulling effect on steel prices. As a result, the pulling of the steel market in the capacity of repression and demand between the two non-stop to find a balance, the market price will become more frequent or severe.

: 2009 domestic industrial steel price pressure is relatively large and long products is the better, however, two differences will not expand. 2009 domestic production and efficiency of industrial enterprises will continue to adjust, many industries will continue in a shrinking construction market in the country's large-scale investment driven, is expected to be expanded, which makes long steel demand also increase. However, long products in China's excess production capacity is not better than the plate, taking into account most of the steel mills to adjust product structure, therefore, a strong characteristic of the long products compared to the plate is limited.

: Steel prices up will still be encountered during the inventory resistance, so far this year, due to the resumption of production of a large number of small and medium-sized steel mills, largely offset by a large the role of steel production, a number of iron and steel enterprises to the inventory through the fourth quarter of last year, is facing re-inventory of the heavy pressure. The data show that in May, the normal steel plant inventory accounted for 71.4%, compared to 44 percent in the last month have increased significantly; low inventory accounted for 18.2% decreased 42% from the previous month; inventories high only 10.4%, a slight decrease compared to 14 percent in the last month. Overall, the steel stocks tend to the normal ratio increased significantly, while the high and low ratio has declined.

: Steel exports plunged increase in the domestic market supply and demand, a quarter of China's steel industry is running the "report released yesterday by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said the first quarter, offset steel billet exports, imports and equivalent to 1.1198 million tons of crude steel net exports, a decrease of 6.5925 million tons, down 85.48 percent over the same period last year, this part of the reduction in the amount converted to put the domestic market, is caused by the first quarter of the domestic The market is an important reason for the oversupply.

Nine: the main raw material for steel production (iron ore, coke, scrap) in steel production costs in a large proportion of its price changes a direct impact on changes in steel production costs. There is further downside in the next few months, the main raw material prices of iron and steel production, coking coal and coke prices fell a larger room for iron ore spot price decline is limited. However, downstream of the steel production cost does not mean that steel prices will also decline, depending on the iron and steel enterprises capacity to play, if the capacity of the iron and steel enterprises can be effectively controlled, the price of steel in the case of cost reduction is still possible to maintain stability Otherwise, the downstream costs will drag on corporate profits.

Ten: market competition and the imbalance between supply and demand of China's steel varieties, from 2005, the Chinese steel industry has entered a highly competitive market structure, but the species concentration of the total is rising , with the industry criticized the concentration of the downward trend of crude steel is the difference, the fundamental problem of the Chinese steel industry is not concentrated too low, but overcapacity, and even advanced production capacity surplus; concentration is too low the problem itself, not because of the large iron and steel is too small-scale enterprises (in 2008 the world's top 20 largest steel company in mainland China accounted for 7 seats), but too many local iron and steel enterprises.

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