report said Libya decline lead to developed countries, oil inventories fell under the five-year average for the first time since 2008. Business inventories for July was 26.87 million barrels, which is equivalent to 58.4 days of consumption; the month inventory increased to 1080 million barrels, half the level of the lack of perennial. An OPEC representative, said last month, the Gulf oil producing countries are unlikely to resume production in Libya early on the reduction of production, because large-scale recovery will take a long time uncertain.
The IEA forecast oil market monthly report released on the 13th, the average daily global oil demand growth this year will be reduced to 16 million barrels to 104 million barrels, the 2012 average daily global oil demand growth will be reduced by 19 million barrels to 1.42 million barrel. In addition, the IEA will the 2012 global consumption forecast down 40 million barrels, the 2011 global consumption forecast down 20 million barrels a day; and said it expects global demand this year will grow 1.2 percent next year will grow by 1.6 percent.
13, IEA monthly report published after the international crude oil prices fell, but since then due to multi-party to come forward behind the euro area, the market slightly ease the fears of the debt crisis in Europe, the price of crude oil is therefore a slight rebound, but most Analysts said that is still not optimistic about the outlook for the global economy World steel pipe network editing .
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OPEC's 12 member states last month increased the daily output of 165,000 barrels, of which Saudi Arabia and Nigeria, the largest yield increase. However, the data show that in this quarter of OPEC crude oil supply is still lower than the estimated level of demand, that is 3130 million barrels a day. According to overseas media statistics, about 40 percent of global oil production from OPEC.
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but on the current situation, OPEC will not immediately cut. The IEA said in a report, the full restoration of Libyan exports will be a long and arduous "process. The agency expects that the Libyan production rate of recovery will be slower than expected. The North African country last month oil production is fully stalled in the fourth quarter may be restored to about 300,000 barrels of daily production. OPEC is expected to Libyan output will recover in 6 months to 1 million barrels a day, 18 months, will resume full operations.
OPEC 12 report also mentioned this point. The economic performance of the top oil consumer the United States is disappointing, which could further the demand for oil under pressure. "The weakening of the economic recovery is a negative impact on oil demand. Looking ahead, on market supply and a shortage of supply in the fourth quarter worry seems to be easing. "OPEC said.
The IEA said in a report the next three quarters of the supply from OPEC may be sufficient to meet global demand, so you do not have to yield. "This means that the recent disruptions in the supply situation will end.
Beijing at 21:15 on the 13th, New York crude oil futures prices quoted $ 89.56 a barrel, or 1.55%; $ 112.26 a barrel of Brent crude oil futures prices edged up 0.01 percent. Deep debt dilemma in the United States and Europe, global manufacturing slowdown and other factors, as one of the global benchmark crude oil price of Brent crude oil futures prices as compared to April hit a high point of the year - $ 127.02 a barrel so far has declined by more than 10%.
(This article Source: Shanghai Securities News Author: WANG Zhou Jie)
British Rich Man Group, an analyst in Singapore said: "This time the rebound is due to the passion caused U.S. stocks closed higher. While market confidence has been restored, but I think in view of the current global economic situation is unstable, you should not rush to build large positions. Because you never know a moment how the crisis broke out in Europe under.
can be seen from the IEA and OPEC's report, a number of factors are changing the crude oil supply and demand structure. IEA report the midpoint of a slowdown concerns. "Global oil demand will continue to be a leisurely pace expansion, the concerns of the people on the global economy is growing and expected global economic growth next year to 4.2 percent, 4.4 percent lower than previously expected.
two institutions to cut oil demand is expected
the United States and Europe in deep debt crisis, emerging market economies, gains the past, and in the context of global economic growth revealed the weakness of the entire oil industry supply and demand structure is quietly changing. Monday, Tuesday, the two major energy organizations - the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered the expected global oil demand this year and next.
However, according to foreign media reports, traders on oil prices moderate rally cautious. They believe that the market is still vulnerable to the risk preference shocks, and policy makers is to find ways to reassure the public, to eliminate the investors' doubts about the Greek problem, but still hard to resolve the short-term uncertainties.
OPEC said on the 12th, expected 2011 global oil demand average daily increase of 106 million barrels World Steel Pipe News , compared with last month's estimate fell 150,000 barrels; the agency will be the 2012 average daily oil demand growth forecast down 4 million barrels to 127 million barrels.
published in the IEA lowered oil demand growth is expected to report on the 13th of the international crude oil futures intraday diving, but since then due to the multi-position support for the euro area, crude oil prices rebound.
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a number of factors affecting supply and demand structure
The IEA also cut its non-OPEC oil supply is expected. Its downward because of Europe's North Sea oil field maintenance, and supply this year will be reduced by 20 million barrels a day.