one after another, has become a true portrayal of the euro zone sovereign debt.
recently, Italy and Belgium's sovereign credit rating outlook are rating agencies lowered to "negative" from "stable". At the same time, the Spanish ruling party defeated in regional elections, but also lead to the outside of the country difficult to cut the budget deficit concerns.
In this context, the above countries bond yields increased to different degrees, investors holding the bond devaluation. Held by the Chinese government of these countries bonds is not clear, but the beginning of this year, Vice Premier Li Keqiang said that the visit to Spain will continue to buy Spanish bonds, commitments to purchase $ 6 billion euros.
May 20, 2009, Fitch took the lead in the Greek long-term foreign and local currency issuer default rating from "BB +" down to "B +", outlook is negative, also said that if Greece does not fully meet the funding demand and reliable EU / IMF program, the rating may face reduced to a "CCC" level of risk.
Vice Finance Minister Li Yong, wrote recently, the euro and the dollar "turns" devaluation, not only China's foreign exchange reserves, the carrying amount of loss, and increased more difficult to manage China's foreign exchange reserve currencies.
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However, Ding Yifan believe that Greece faces a very serious debt problems, whether from stock or traffic needs of the reorganization, and certainly not from Greece through the debt restructuring maturity accounts re- arrangements. If you do not restructure debt, Greece real debt crisis is inevitable.
SAFE did not disclose the currency structure of foreign exchange reserves, analysts in accordance with the relevant data suggest about 65% -70% of China's foreign exchange reserves in dollar assets and euro denominated assets account for about 20% -25%, other 10 % including the pound, yen and other currency assets. This means that as of the end of March, China's $ 3.04 trillion foreign exchange reserves World pipe network reported that the world's steel pipe network to provide the world's steel pipe network editor , euro assets of about $ 600,000,000,000.
Since then, the Euro Group Juncker, chairman of dished to allow the concept of "soft restructuring" of the Greek debt, triggering panic in the market. Greek 10-year bond yields was more than 17 percent of the biennial yields soared to more than 25%. Greek 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) surged by around 500 basis points interest rate differential in the past month and reached a historical high of 1477 basis points.
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data show the need to debt service in the next three years, Greece € 145 billion, including € 111 billion principal amount, interest of € 34 billion. Will usher in a new peak in July and August 2011, this two months, Greece need total debt of 17 billion euros.
European debt crisis also led to the euro continued to fall, euro assets in the foreign exchange reserves reduced in the wake. Early May since the euro against the U.S. dollar has fallen 5% -6%, while the first quarter of this year, after rising 3.5 percent last year, down 6.5 percent.
with SAFE in a dilemma, according to compared to a more flexible banking skill. Bank of China Quarterly Bulletin revealed that as of the end of March 2011, held by the four countries, including Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Spain, the European government and various institutions to issue the bond book value is equivalent to 1.448 billion yuan, a decrease of 718 million yuan over the previous year. Last year, the bank has holdings of these countries bonds of 4.854 billion yuan. ICBC 2010 Annual Report also shows that the size of other foreign currency bonds held by other than U.S. dollars reduced by 2.916 billion yuan, down 9.9 percent, mainly due to the reduction of part of the foreign currency bonds. But did not clear the proportion of euro-denominated debt.
the first quarter of last year, the euro against the U.S. dollar fell nearly 6 percent, resulting in the loss of China's foreign exchange reserves, the carrying amount of approximately $ 50 billion.
a year ago, the Greek detonated the eurozone debt crisis. Despite the EU / IMF rescue, Greece still again on the verge of jeopardy World steel pipe network editing .
"In essence, the euro-zone countries cross holders of treasury bonds is very common, debt network clouds, especially in the core countries, Germany and France on the edge of the country's debt held by "Jiang said the exposure of national banks in the Greek debt is about 101 billion euros, accounting for 31% of the principal debt, including France and Germany reached 41 billion euros and 28 billion euros, about 70% of the total, to a certain extent, this will reduce the risk of default by Greece.
Greece breach of clouds
the 24th, Moody's also issued a statement that the Greek default or be downgraded to "CA" or "C". "The longer the current situation of this uncertainty affect Greece, Greece and the euro area authorities tried to take some form of debt restructuring, the greater the temptation. It is difficult to predict Greek default market impact, the more difficult to control this effect. "Moody's said.
euro assets has shrunk pressure
According to the EU and the IMF, Greece € 110 billion aid agreement, the first 5 pen aid has 12 billion euros, issued in June. Ability to pay the money for Greece 13.7 billion euros of debt is about to expire is essential, if not able to achieve, Greece will be breach of contract. Greece is implementing a series of austerity measures in order to obtain loans in a timely manner, and began the sale of state assets.
"Greece if the debt restructuring, we would not be surprised, Greece in the 1930s, there have been defaulting on its debt, has long been out of the vision of the world. Jiang Chao, said, "Guotai Junan Securities chief macro-researcher.
Although the proportion of China's foreign exchange reserves in euro assets is unclear, but the value of the assets of these Euro is undoubtedly worrying. The State Council Development Research Center of the World Development Institute researcher, deputy director of the small one who considers that Greece's debt restructuring will inevitably be related to our assets, "We should be actively involved in this matter, for example, the Greek debt restructuring negotiations.
not just Greece. May 24, Fitch Belgium's credit rating outlook from "stable" reduced to "negative" after Standard & Poor's, Italy's sovereign credit rating outlook also increased from "stable" to "negative" .
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Greek government is committed to the 2011 fiscal deficit rate to 7.5% and 10.5% in 2010. The country also plans to sell the state-owned assets worth 50 billion euros in the next five years, hopes to complete before the end of this year, 5.5 billion euros. The proposed sale of assets include the equity of state-owned banks, casino patents, two of the largest piers and water and other.
but the situation is most critical of Greece. May 24, the Greek finance minister, announced that if you can not obtain a loan under the EU / IMF, Greece breach of contract. Moody's assessment of Greece's debt default probabilities on the date of the impact of a statement, said Greece if the debt default or a negative impact on the bond credit rating and its banking sector, and loss and other peripheral euro zone countries.