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2012 U.S. recession, the probability of over 50% of?

Release Date:2012-05-05  Hits:439
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According to another report, November 14, the number of U.S. Congressional aides said, because time is running out, the "super committee" composed of six Democrats and six Republicans might agree to cut spending, and motioned to his colleagues in the next year by modifying the tax code to get more tax revenue. This may allow the Commission reached an agreement before the deadline of November 23, temporarily quell the U.S. government long-term budget dispute, but at the same time, this also means that the tax issues left over to during the 2012 general election. By then, the partisan tensions than ever, even more.



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November 13, U.S. President Barack Obama urged a "super committee" to overcome all difficulties and obstacles, including reduced expenses and income situation, including the effective deficit reduction plan before the arrival of the deadlines, and work out . Obama said the United States must be carefully adjusted to maintain the balance of the financial position of financial balance of payments problems. Automatic budget cuts, the measures may have to start this "sword of Damocles has been hanging in everyone's head, which will prompt lawmakers to take positive action to make a useful contribution to the health of the economy in the United States .


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this recession should be a serious risk assessment than many economists expected. Reuters survey shows that on November 4, Wall Street economists expect the 2012 U.S. recession probability of 30%, compared with 35.5% of the survey in October decline.


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Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco researchers said in the report, although the probability of accurate measurement is difficult, but the major U.S. economic indicators show that the probability of decline in the end of the year to early 2012 is on the rise. They found that after the second half of 2012, the recession risk will gradually subside. European sovereign debt default is enough to make the United States back into recession. But if the United States can succeed through the second half of 2012, the danger in 2013 quickly faded ". Greece and Italy the new government response to the latest commitment of financial investors in the euro area short-term default concerns eased, but the European debt crisis is far from being resolved, the euro-zone economy may face a "lost decade". The OECD report released on November 14, the composite index of leading indicators for seven consecutive months decline in global economic growth is slow, if the eurozone can not resolve the debt crisis, the developed economies in the next two years will remain weak economy and high unemployment coexist the status quo world pie network information .

local time on November 14, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco study shows that European debt crisis, the U.S. recession probability rose, expected in early 2012, the recession probability is more than 50%. The report will be the main cause of recession blamed on external factors, Dick Povey, senior bank analyst of Rochdale Securities, said the euro area actually help the U.S World Steel Pipe News . banking industry, the European banking sector assets low price for sale to the U.S. banking industry, and create a lot of benefits for the U.S. banking sector. This shows that the U.S. recession, "said remains to be seen.

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