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therefore, faced with the dilemma of economic growth, our government must take a more balanced economic strategy, such as downside risks facing global economic growth in the future, we must always adhere to the prudent monetary policy to stimulate domestic demand growth, obviously, not because of the recent drop in inflation to ease monetary policy, and otherwise make our country this round of economic downturn of the cycle may be extended closer GDP growth hub in the next few years is likely from about 10 percent in the past about 9%. and social risks in order to avoid potential economic growth downstream broke out, China still need to pay more attention to the continuous improvement of people's livelihood and social welfare.
This means that the U.S. debt rating downgrade trigger the global economic situation are less likely to produce such a rapid decline in 2008, China's impact will be less than in 2008, the second half of the decline in export growth is still controllable.
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the actual impact may be less than expected
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U.S. credit rating downgrade also will increase the risk of second bottom of the global economy. Such as the U.S. credit rating downgrade will further deepen the awareness of the risks of global investors, they are likely to accelerate to escape from those countries with a high risk of debt, rapid increase in the debt of these countries the level of yield, to a sharp deterioration in the current debt crisis in Europe, the global financial The market once again into unrest is inevitable, and ultimately even sound national debt situation will also be involved, the global economy will likely fall into rapid decline similar to 2008 World pipe network reported that the world's steel pipe network to provide the world's steel pipe network editor .
this risk event short-term on the global financial markets have a greater impact. The United States has always been enjoying the world's highest credit rating, which also determines its national debt as the pricing basis of the global financial credit products, and now it's downgraded, indicating that the benchmark of the global credit shaken, which will make the global financial market risk premium level rise, which cause greater risk for the operation of the global financial markets, its shock wave may be as much as the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, because it would trigger a U.S. bond yields rise, pushing up the entire market borrowing costs, borrowing rising costs will not only impact is still relatively fragile the U.S. government, corporate and personal balance sheet, will increase the government the next step to stimulate the introduction of the policy more difficult, thus exacerbating the current economic downturn, the United States re-interpretation of the kind of crisis in 2008 more likely.
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global credit risk increased sharply
such as U.S. debt rating downgrades, but relative to other countries bonds, the proceeds of U.S. debt is still relatively the most stable and least risky U.S. debt cornerstone position in the global financial markets in the short term will not change because, according to Basel II, rating dropped from AAA to AA +, does not affect the structure of the bank's risk, the U.S. dollar as international reserve currency status of short-term still can not shake.
to other developed countries such as U.S. debt downgrade will further urge the United States more firmly to reduce the deficit and the lack of new technology revolution and economic hot spot situations, the only further compress the medium-term economic growth in the current U.S. U.S. debt downgrade will force them to shrink the high fiscal deficit, which will affect their economic growth.
despite the global financial crisis with less risk of China's economy will not last as the rapid decline, but we believe that the U.S. debt rating cut for medium-and long-term risks of China's economic operation can not be ignored.
although before the Standard & Poor's has repeatedly warned lowered the sovereign credit rating to market the event has been expected, but in the U.S. debt ceiling is raised, the S & P is quickly lowered the sovereign credit rating or the market most of the institutions feel the accident.
In addition, the United States in order to avoid the release of financial risks and the economic downturn, again in the future use of the possibility of quantitative easing of monetary policy greatly increased, which will undoubtedly further increase global inflationary pressures.
Therefore, governments and major institutions not the U.S. debt rating on large-scale sell-off, especially the main holder for its own sake, not to short-term selling U.S. Treasury bonds in order to avoid their own greater losses, on the contrary, they the introduction of a variety of mobility assistance program to prepare for the impact of the financial markets. August 8, such as the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors issued a joint statement, said it would take all necessary measures to ensure financial stability and economic growth.
medium-and long-term risks can not be ignored
It is this pessimistic forecasts of many investors fear a repeat of the situation of the financial crisis broke out in October 2008, but we believe that the final and will not deduce that the financial crisis in 2008.
recently, even though the U.S. debt ceiling of programs by the U.S. short-term debt service has been to resolve the risk, but the Standard & Poor's will continue to U.S. Treasury bonds 3A rating lowered to AA +, taking into account the baseline status of U.S. Treasury credit in global financial markets. this historic event, short-term will have a greater impact on global financial marketsWorld Steel Pipe , global government short-term is bound to the introduction of various types of liquidity support measures to guard against the impact of financial markets, although this can be avoided global the financial crisis, but it will bring medium-and long-term risk but should not be overlooked, also pose a challenge to China's economy running smoothly.
will undoubtedly economic and long-term operation and transformation of enormous challenges, on the one hand, external demand growth in the central downstream requires us to pay more attention to domestic demand growth, on the other hand domestic demand growth, particularly investment can not grow too fast, otherwise it is easy to lead to more serious inflation.