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emerging economies, high inflation is still the main reason for compressed loose space in emerging economies, especially the frequent extreme weather in the Southeast Asian countries, food prices rise and raise their national incomes under the background of the domestic demand for energy release . International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that the inflation forecast for 2011 and 2012 in emerging economies as a whole were 6.9% and 5.6%, much higher than developed economies over the same period the inflation level of 2.6% and 1.7%.
but it is undeniable that, in view of Europe into "the plight of non-growth-type express the storm", the United States is in a state of "jobless growth", and the two sides space is extremely limited short-term fiscal stimulus and monetary policy quadratic easing "as the only policy options.
emerging economies
global ultra-low interest rate environment led to asset bubbles, private-sector debt increased systemic risk remain digestion and depleted. Such as the emerging economies in the monetary policy stance is too "positive loose" or "active liberal, fear will give rise to greater financial and economic risks, will also miss the reform of economic structure, industrial upgrading, and deep institutional a good opportunity for reform. Therefore, the emerging economies, not passive monetary policy in developed economies "second loose" with the film, but should be read in conjunction with the actual situation of the domestic economy, the introduction of appropriate policies combination punches . If the domestic real interest rates has coincided with an expanding economy, the gradual relaxation of monetary policy in order to activate the domestic demand "engine"; real interest rate is still negative, the economy was no marked decline in the economy, you need to continue cautious, timely fine-tune monetary policy.
after nearly four years the money for time "of the transaction, the current size of the Fed and the ECB's balance sheet have been expanded to $ 2.8 trillion and 2.3 trillion euros are at historically high levels. This means that if the Fed continue to introduce quantitative easing policy, expansion of financial securities to buy scale is bound to lead to multi-criticism and criticism. Moreover, Europe is now withstand the 3% inflation rate is "high voltage", further expansion is bound to lead to surge in broad money in Europe, then Europe will face inflationary pressures and the ECB deteriorating financial position of the two kinds of evil consequences.
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market liquidity crunch is more structural in nature. The world's top ten economies of the seven countries of the United States, China, JapanWorld Steel Pipe , the United Kingdom, Brazil, India, Canada, 2008 to 2010 for three years, money supply increased by $ 8.96 trillion, an increase of up to 43.16%. At present world pie network information , parts of Europe shown by the mobility of nervous signs, more investors to finance the main configuration to the security of assets, rather than the overall market liquidity dried up.
major Western central bank's interest-rate tide,this week, was expected to "calm" has set off a series of loose waves. 10, Indonesia's central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates 50 basis points to 6%. On the same day, to keep the benchmark interest rate of 0.5% and the scale of quantitative easing remain unchanged for 275 billion pounds at the same time, the Bank of England also revealed the future expansion of the willingness to buy bonds. Previously, Turkey, Pakistan, Brazil and Indonesia and other emerging economies in just three months, "the relay to cut interest rates", European Central Bank last week wore inflation high pressure firmly to cut interest rates.
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However, in global liquidity as a whole is relatively abundant in the developed economies to the Lever process continued, the emerging economies is difficult to seek to control inflation and to maintain growth "equilibrium point" a series of realistic constraints, global & ldquo ; secondary loose space and the intensity I am afraid that is immune to level such as the 2008 financial crisis.