China is the main source of growth of the global demand for raw materials, but its supply is limited by the high cost of mining and extraction of oil. With global oil prices, at the initiative of the Government in recent years, Chinese companies have overseas investments and acquisitions to secure China's sustained economic prosperity and development of strategic materials.
Throughout the world raw materials markets, the price of silver fell by more than 21 percent since May, fell the bull market of raw materials since the fourth quarter of last year, driven, including oil, copper and other market decline. This round of market selling raw materials, mainly worried about U.S. economic growth probably will be weakening, and the second round of U.S. quantitative easing policy (QE2) will be the end of June, but also hit emerging countries continue to raise interest rates, economic growth slowed.
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raw materials, super business cycle has started 10 years, the CRB raw materials index on a bull market (October 2001 to July 2008) rose 239%, in the middle halted because of the global financial tsunami, but after the tsunami wave of increase was as high as 96%, 4World Steel Pipe .4% in recent callback only minor revisions in the cyclical. Once the global economy is dependent on imports of raw materials, China and other emerging Asian countries return to growth is expected to again and again l wave of raw material prices, the stock market in Latin America is also expected to rise.
the past 10 years, Latin American stock market performance and raw materials picked up the pace and magnitude of this association up to 0.95. Since November last year, Latin American stock markets continued consolidation, but did not catch this wave of the CRB raw materials index soaring trains, both the correlation is only 0.08.
purchasing managers generally believe that the high prices of raw materials, raw material prices in the short-term record highs is not easy. The outlook for the dollar is still weak outlook of raw materials is a high possibility of hovering in the high, due to the demand side is generally agreed that the current high prices, a greater chance of raw materials in the next quarter of a shock at a high level.
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raw materials, high and volatile, investors should be careful market variables, the first rate hikes in China fear will result in the acceleration of economic slow down; second, the first quarter of the overall economic data to reproduce the weak; the third raw materials speculative long positions still at historically high levels should pay attention to the reversal of the situation; the fourth is the recent strengthening of the dollar, especially against the euro World Steel Pipe News , coupled with the end of the second round of U.S. quantitative easing policy, the US-China economic growth slows down, investors were reluctant to take risks, while Once the arbitrage capital back into the United States, will promote a strong dollar, raw materials, in this atmosphere will be relatively weak.
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is worth noting that Latin American stock markets over the past 10 years has been working with the raw materials "Dances, raw material prices, the Latin American stock markets also rose. But recent studies have shown that the CRB raw materials index from December 2008 to April this year, the two and a half, up 96 percent, while the index fell 4.4 percent since April 11 this year, part of the decline in raw material prices are not shallow, however, on the whole , raw materials soaring after taking, it is natural. Contrast, Latin American stock markets, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) index of Latin America came to a low area of the recent consolidation pattern, export-oriented cyclical stocks is to drive the market down, the high point of the CRB raw materials index from April 11 has Latin American energy stocks have fallen by 15%, mine gold and raw material stocks callback 10% Morgan Stanley Capital International Latin America index of the right to weigh up to 38.7%, while energy and mining gold.
raw materials and resources such as long-term fundamentals support. The first is economic growth in emerging countries to promote global economic recovery, this trend has been for a long time, is expected to remain so for future development. In addition, the developed countries, inflation fears led investors to increase demand for raw materials. Third, the hotbed of the weak dollar bull market of raw materials, the recent dollar strength is only momentary, the long term, the dollar will eventually return to fundamentals, to help improve the stock performance of the Latin American raw materials.
China's economy trends affecting the Latin American economies, and Latin American countries have the energy and raw materials and other strategic materials, to attract Chinese-funded enterprises stationed in the investment. Latin America accounted for the proportion of overseas investment of Chinese enterprises rose to 36 percent of China's capital account for more than 50% of Latin America as a whole, foreign direct investment (FDI). In addition, due to the sustained development of China's infrastructure, raw materials, enterprises are also actively buy copper mines in Peru and Chile, as well as iron ore producer in Latin American countries.
Latin America in the 20th century had the world's most important economic production powerhouse, and its rich products, with countless gold, silver, copper, iron (ore) and oil and other resources. These treasures the pocket of capital in the 21st century, Latin America, growth in demand in emerging countries such as China and India, export of raw materials, while the wealthy and strong country, return to the international stage.