the
market is worried, Portugal, Spain and Belgium, full-blown debt crisis of the higher risk, may step footsteps of Greece and Ireland to apply for international assistance.
European debt crisis has been transmitted in the euro area periphery countries as Belgium's debt risk increased sharply, the crisis is a great breakthrough last line of defense, flapping bite the danger of the core countries of Germany, France and other euro-zone.
Spain "too big to fail"
official statistics show that Portugal budget deficit accounted for 9.4 percent of GDP in 2009, far beyond the provisions of the EU's upper limit of 3%; 86% of the public debt to GDPWorld Steel Pipe , the market is estimated that this proportion may actually be as high as 122%; more It is alarming that the private debt of the country up to 239% of GDP; Portugal 2010 current account deficit is expected to reach 10.3 percent of GDP in next year, compared with 8.8 percent. At the same time, the Portuguese banking sector dependence on outside capital accounted for 40% of its total assets; In addition, the country's labor market there is a big risk, the unemployment rate up to 10%.
Portugal or take 50 billion euros in aid
Last week, the Belgian sovereign debt credit default swaps (CDS) shoots up 5 percent, a record high. Analysts expect the gap will gradually narrow the CDS prices in Belgium and West Portuguese between the two countries.
but in Spain the situation really is not optimistic. Last week, the Spanish 10-year bonds and comparable German bond yields poor continues to expand, the highest in the euro area since the establishment of a new high. 2011, Spain will repay the debt of 192 billion euros, accounting for about one fifth of its total debt. The Spanish government expects the country's debt financing costs will increase by 18% in 2011. However, the Spanish economy with senior officials of the Ministry of Finance has indicated that despite the recent debt issuance costs soar, but Spain will continue to use the bond market financing, the financing costs of the country is still controlled.
the same day, the Portuguese government announced that Congress has approved the fiscal 2011 Budget. According to the Budget, the Government will cut the expenditure of about 3 billion euros, an increase of about 1.5 billion euros in revenue by raising taxes. Portuguese government programs, the proportion of the budget deficit to gross domestic product (GDP) dropped to below 3 percent in 2014.
European debt crisis is still spreading, the European great trend of the full range of emergency. November 26, a member of the ECB's Governing Council and the German Bundesbank President Axel Weber said the possibility of the existing € 750 billion European financial stabilization fund gap is very low, but in the case of "extreme pessimism" may expand the fund size.
Recently, the Belgian debt risk increased sharply.
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Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero on the 26th, Spain is not likely to seek international assistance. Analysts believe that the Spanish government "fooling" the lung is the country's government debt issued to its banking sector, rather than overseas lending institutions or government. If the Spanish Government's fiscal position deteriorated, the country's banks to relax loan conditions to help the government to ride out the storm. However, this is a two-edged double-edged sword ", if Spanish banks to relax loan conditions, may have to bear huge losses, seriously eroded the country's financial system, laying the seeds for the crisis continue to escalate.
German media reported that on the 26th, and several euro area member states of the European Central Bank is urging Portugal to the European Financial Stability Fund for relief, the report quoted sources as saying of the German Ministry of Finance, said: "Portugal to obtain the assistance of Spain, a major positive, because the latter has great exposure to Portugal.
Spain's economic scale is twice that of the sum of the economies of scale in Greece, Ireland and Portugal, the banking assets compared with the three countries assets sum higher than 1 trillion euros of GDP accounted for 8.9% of the total EU GDP. Huge economies of scale, Spain was forced to apply for assistance, the euro will face a systemic risk, and bring heavy pressure to a member of the EU economy stronger.
the past six months
, Belgium has not been able to form a successful new government, the country delays the introduction and implementation of fiscal austerity, increased the risk of a debt crisis. 2009 Belgian public debt-GDP ratio as high as 101.2 percent, ranking third in the EU member states. However, the country's deficit of 6% of GDP, ranking eighth in the EU member states, is still under the EU average deficit level.
Belgium was a "high-risk ranks
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Portugal and Spain, the European Commission and the German Ministry of Finance then have denied the report, said not to put pressure on Portugal.
analysts expected in the euro area Member States, Portugal most likely to "rescue" the country may apply for the assistance of about 50 billion euros in the first quarter of 2011 World pipe network reported that the world's steel pipe network to provide the world's steel pipe network editor .
However, the high-level deny the application for relief seems to be a formal application for relief "prelude", some efforts of the Portuguese Government failed to stop the country's sovereign bonds suffered sell-off. 26, 10-year Portuguese bonds and German bond yields widened to 12 basis points to 444 basis points.
this week, the European debt crisis "high-risk country" Portugal and Spain will be the issuance of bonds is expected to scale up to 23 billion euros. Germany's Commerzbank strategist Shinuo Zi said, it will be 2010 euro zone last batch of large-scale bond issuance, and may lead to financial markets shock.
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analysts also pointed out that: "Europe can support live in Greece, Ireland and even Portugal, one after another fell, but can not afford the collapse of Spain.