Deutsche Bank said in a recent report, the potential threat of global oil supply, the most serious since 30 years ago, the Iranian Revolution and the Iran-Iraq war - if Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz.
Subsequently, the International Atomic Energy Agency attempts to enter Iran Parchin military bases and, where it is suspected nuclear activities, but Iran has refused this request. At this point, further strained already tense situation of the Gulf, the market began to worry about the possibility of the outbreak of war.
In fact, since May last year, Brent crude oil prices basically in a consolidation. Until February this year, the market began to appear unilateral upward.
"I think the main reason crude oil prices is to the frenzied speculation of the Fund. Wing futures analyst, Cheng said, "But before the situation in Iran is not entirely clear, many uncertain factors will also lead to enable the international oil prices in the short term to maintain a strong pattern.
European embargo Iran's oil-propelled oil prices
In fact, the Iranian official had this position. Ya Hani, Iran's ambassador to France, recently said: "Iran has no intention to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. "Although some members of the Members and the Revolutionary Guard in Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, but Ya Hani said that Iran has no intention to support the practice of blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is Iran's official position.
From the situation in the United States, supply and demand situation is really not very optimistic. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) latest data show that as of February 17 week, U world pie network information .S. crude oil inventories increased by 163 million barrels to 3.4071 billion barrels, an incremental 500,000 barrels more than analysts had expected.
The first futures analyst training caves also said that oil price highs on Monday, mainly because of the long profit-taking. Over a period of time, speculative institutions to make use of the tensions in the Middle East massive holdings, there are some signs of profit taking. But alone this is difficult to determine oil prices this connection abort the rally, because the Iranian issue is not resolved, Syria is still in turmoil. Investors are advised to long wait temporary short you need to exercise caution.
As of yesterday 2323 GMT WTI crude oil April contract price of $ 108.19 / barrel over the previous session down $ 0.35 / barrel, down 0.31 percent. Brent crude oil price of $ 123.38 / barrel, compared with the previous trading day down $ 0.79 / barrel, down 0.64 percent.
Last Thursday (February 23), euro-denominated Brent crude oil prices in the intraday rise to a new record high of 93.60 euros / barrel, more than the July 3, 2008, € 93.46 / barrel record high.
Market's worries are not entirely without reason, the history of the smoke has not cleared. In 1973, the fourth Middle East war led to the first oil crisis, a few months time, crude oil prices soared to $ 10.7 / barrel from $ 3 / barrel. 1978, was the world's second-largest oil exporter, Iran's political situation changes, caused by the second oil crisis, oil prices soared from $ 13 / barrel to 34 U.S. dollars / barrel. The oil crisis had a severe impact on developed economies, lead to the Western economies all in recession.
Iran's oil exports to the EU is not, however, Iran's Strait of Hormuz, an important oil routes in the Middle East. Once the war broke out, Iran block the Strait of Hormuz, on the global oil supply have a significant impact.
Fund crazy speculation
Until the end of January, the delegation of the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency access to the start, the market seemed to be aware of the seriousness of Iran.
Funds for speculation in crude oil, the Iran crisis is clearly no better theme speculation.
However, at the same time to the performance of WTI crude oil futures prices of dollar-denominated, not as Brent crude oil is so eye-catching intraday price of WTI oil price on February 23 is only a record nine months since May last year a new high.
HoweverWorld Steel Pipe , if the vision evacuation of Europe, we will find an entirely different story. The the Guterman newsletter analyst DennisGartman recently pointed out that the short term, the global oil market will face oversupply, rather than inadequate. Although the Gulf region or the world any "hot spots" may have trouble, but taking into account the newly discovered oil and gas reserves is a huge supply of the oil market does not appear nervous.
Beginning in early February, the Brent oil prices into the rising channel. February 1, April contracts of Brent crude oil futures closing price of 111.21 U.S. dollars / barrel, while a high of 125.47 U.S. dollars / barrel closed on February 24, or about 13 percent.
Brent crude rose direct cause of Iran's geopolitical crisis. In early January, the EU announced that it would impose sanctions on Iran, and prohibition of its crude oil exports to EU countries. The United States position will support the proposal of the European embargo on Iranian oil. However, due to Iran, the volume of oil exports to the EU, only about 500,000 barrels a day, even though the EU to stop crude oil imports from Iran, the supply of the impact on the actual will not be much. Brent oil price has not jumped by 25 January Brent crude oil prices even fell to about a month low of $ 109 / barrel.