Basic needs of employment can not be guaranteed, Europe and the United States, consumer confidence remains in the doldrums. In November, the euro zone business and consumer confidence was further weakened for the ninth straight month of decline.
Overall, the "old" by the financial crisis and sovereign credit crunch "trouble" drag, Europe and the United States economy short-term growth prospects are not optimistic about the uncertainty outstanding.
Not, said the first quarter of next year, the European central bank governor Mario Draghi in the European Parliament speech this week warned that, in the first quarter of next year, the euro area bond market will face a huge test, then World pipe network reported that the world's steel pipe network to provide the world's steel pipe network editor , there are 300 billion euros of government bonds € 230 billion bank debt and more than 2000 billion euros of mortgage-backed securities fell due. Such a huge refinancing pressure may be a dramatic impact in the short term to bring a new round of financial and economic system.
To this upcoming Christmas holiday gifts from Europe and the United States, jewelry orders decline, but in more concentrated markets and Yiwu China Christmas merchandise, the merchant did not feel "cold" this winter, especially because In China, Christmas is becoming increasingly popular, and this has also led to the sale of related goods.
Economy "anemia" difficult to drive consumer
Seen in this light, worsening external economic environment, external demand bleak backdrop, China wants to continue to take the external demand driving this road certainly does not work. The good news is that the strategy of expanding domestic demand has been written to China's "12th Five-Year Plan, the steady growth in domestic consumption is expected to need in the future for some time, partially offset by weakness in the adverse impact of China's economic growth.
Chinese try to take the expansion of domestic demand, the road
The other hand, the shadow of the 2008 and 2009 financial crisis continues to affect Europe and the United States economy, real estate, finance and other areas still experiencing residual "deleveraging"World Steel Pipe . Today, for example, the U.S. housing market remains mired in the doldrums, the third quarter, U.S. home prices continue to fall, the current level of U.S. home prices have returned to the level of the first quarter of 2003.
In the U.S., because they have the advantage of the sovereign currency issuing countries, short-term U.S. debt less breach of contract and other malignant conditions, the political deadlock around debt relief issues, it is bound in the 2012 election year, continue to affect the U.S. government's spending plans as well as important economic policy-making.
For the United States, the OECD will be given its 2012 economic growth is expected by May, 3.1% down to 2%. Many people believe that the current U.S. economy is "thriving" robust growth spurts. But experts cautioned that such a weak economic recovery process, "immunity" of the economy is poor, it is easy to hit because of some short-term impact. So, in 2012, U.S. economic growth prospects will remain challenging, are susceptible to the impact of the European debt and risk events.
The first is a sovereign debt crisis, which was especially evident in the current Europe. Since the beginning of this year, the European debt crisis situation again worsened, especially in the second half of the year, not only the Greek "secondary disease", Italy, Spain and even France, Germany, have been involved in a wave of sovereign debt crisis. The rapid surge in the cost of debt of European countries, more than 7% of the risk of issuing bonds interest rates frequently appears, holding a large number of euro area high-risk government bonds in the banking sector shudder, some banks have the capital chain ran out of danger.
Pulling power as the economic growth of China and other Asian economies in the past quite a long time, external demand in the next two years may be a "misfiring", this is mainly due to the sovereign debt crisis and the resulting fiscal austerity, The high unemployment rate and economic growth in the doldrums multiple factors drag.
OECD chief economist Padoan recently warned that the current situation worse than in 2009, the 2008 financial crisis, trade became the engine of economic growth, and now the world is facing the risk of trade protectionism.
In Europe, the latest OECD report points out that the euro zone is already in recession. The organization is expected fourth quarter euro-zone economy will this year from a year earlier contract by 1 percent in the first quarter of 2012 will shrink 0.4 percent in 2012 as a whole increased by only 0.2%.
The next year, the main problem is still the European debt
On the 9th of this month's EU summit high hopes, but after the reaction of the parties to prove this meeting and the countless summit did not resolve the debt crisis in Europe, some of the most difficult to engage in, such as political and financial integration. In this case, can be expected that next year will continue to be the year of the European debt crisis.
The common problem of high unemployment rate is also Europe and the United States. Recently, the U.S. unemployment rate finally fell below 9 percent, but still the highest in 8.6% of the history of relatively high. In Europe, Britain's unemployment rate reached the highest in 17 years to 8.3%, France 9.3%. The main representative of developed countries, the OECD has recently announced the members of the Organization in October, the overall unemployment rate reached 8.3 percent, which the euro area, EU and the G7 overall unemployment rate rose to 10%, 9.5% and 7. 7%, at least on the highest level since a financial crisis.
Another trouble directly related to the debt crisis is the financial crunch, which was particularly prominent in contemporary Europe. In Greece, Italy and other countries this year, the temporary change of leadership, the new government after taking office, the first thing is to promote a new wave of fiscal austerity. For example, Italian Prime Minister Tremonti earlier this month announced a total of € 30 billion package of fiscal austerity and reform, to cuts in public spending ahead with structural reforms. France in order to keep the precarious 3A rating, also recently announced a total of € 7 billion tax increase less.
Some analysts believe that European countries deal with the debt crisis and forced to take less wages, layoffs, cut welfare and other austerity measures, to some extent will further increase the economic burden on these countries.